UAlberta Math Biology Seminar: Marwa Tuffaha

We built an age- and immunity-stratified COVID-19 model with setting-specific contacts (home, school, workplace, other) and calibrated it to Ontario’s pre-Omicron incidence and hospital admissions. Counterfactuals toggled vaccination and varied NPIs by setting. Only vaccination combined with NPIs kept peaks within capacity; either alone merely delayed surges, and removing both caused an early, explosive breach. With vaccination on, targeting non-school contacts (workplace/“other”) contained severe demand, whereas relaxing them—even with schools restricted—produced large waves; school-only measures had modest effects. For preparedness against adult-skewed pathogens,the most effective approach is to maintain vaccination and concentrate NPIs in non-school settings, as school-only restrictions are insufficient to prevent capacity strain.