Maud Menten Institute / Mathematical and Statistical Biology Seminar: Hermann Erberl

Abstract: Nosema ceranae is microsporidian fungal parasite, originally of Apis ceranae, the Eastern Honeybee, that meanwhile jumped host and can also be found in Apis mellifera, the Western Honeybee. It is the causative agent of Nosemosis, a widespread honeybee gut disease. We present a model for nosemosis in a bee colony that we extend then to a model for an entire apiary, accounting for two routes of transmission (direct and indirect), and for seasonal variations in model parameters. For a single colony this is a model of 5 ODEs, for an apiary with n colonies it becomes a model of 5n ODEs. Extensive numerical simulations and scrutinisation suggest that the model in this setting for a small apiary with 16 colonies can have a chaotic regime, depending on parameters. We will explore what causes this and discuss whether this is realistic behavior or an artifact of model assumptions.